There I was, knee deep in comments after someone asked if they should start a new 40k Army, or a New Age of Sigmar Army? Come take a look at my response.
Is the venerable cash cow out of milk?
One thing that kept popping over and over was, “40k is NOT dying!” I get it. You guys are passionate about 40k. However,I don’t think 40k is as healthy as you think.
Dying is a harsh word and people love to speculate about the end of things. Humanity has been declaring the end of the world for millennia. Whenever there’s a comment about a game system dying people jump-in and the flame wars begin. It’s fun.
Let’s get one thing straight, I don’t think 40k is dying.
Many of us love 40k, however, I pose to you this question: Is the average 40k player older than it was 10 years ago? Probably. That’s just a function of a lack of outreach and a high cost of entry. But as the box says, 40k is not for kids, we are not playing with toys. So, let’s just begrudgingly admit that the age of the average 40k player is probably higher. Not only are Veterans older but we have multiple armies. How many more will we buy? Well that’s the million-dollar question.
Grow Games Workshop, Grow!
Companies are expected to grow. Games Workshop has spent the better part of the past decade reorganization and re-focusing on it’s core business, making the world best miniatures. It was, in my opinion, important for them to do from a business standpoint.
In the past couple of years they’ve unloaded tons of product at a frenetic pace. They’ve unleashed box sets at amazing values. However, Games Workshop hasn’t been growing at the rate it wants to. How do I know? Well, check out this press release.
Yes, a smart company, that is looking to grow, will hire outside experts. This is good. I don’t want Games Workshop to fail, so I’m glad they’re looking for outside opinions. However, my point is: They’ve released a ton of stuff and the company isn’t growing at the rate it expects. Selling models to veterans isn’t sustainable
We know that Games Workshop has 3 big games. We also know that the Horus Heresy line has been selling more. We know that Age of Sigmar has been selling more than Fantasy was at the end. If these two games are improving but overall growth isn’t good, well, that points to a lack of sales in 40k.
Now, before you get all uppity, lack of sales is relative. I won’t argue that 40k sells more than the other two platforms; combined. We all know that NFL hit a ratings slump this year. The NFL is still a behemoth in sports. 40k is still the big dog but how long until it turns into just a dog?
You get free stuff, and you get Free stuff!
If you haven’t noticed, there’s been a move to give us “Free” upgrades, like Rhino’s and Drop Pods, oh my. Why? Well, you’d be naïve to think it wasn’t to try boost sales. 40k has grown in not only complexity but size over the course of its 30 years. Just like, wait for it, Fantasy Battles did.
Games Workshop has to sell miniatures. It’s their core business. The player base is full of veterans who are beginning to reach the point of saturation. New factions are being released to entice more sales. Adeptus Mechanicus, Genestealers, Adeptus Custodes, to name just a few; they’re aimed squarely at veterans. These are factions s veterans have been pleading for. We got them and sales, well, sales did what they did and Games Workshop hasn’t grown as much as it wants.
At least, Games Workshop knows it’s selling to veterans.
Yes, if you’re looking to start a miniature army 40k is still a great option if you like the setting. However, we can see that 40k is stagnating by elimination and sales trends. Games Workshop has already seen a platform stagnate and decline. This is familiar territory. They don’t want that to happen again and neither do we. 40k is the king, it’s not dead; it’s not dying, but it’s cholesterol is high and without a change in diet and exercise 40k may go the way of Fantasy Battles.
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About the Author: Felix Fimbres
