Where is 40k going, and what can we expect from any ‘new’ versions (End Times?) of the game we all know and love? Come take a look at what we think.
Recently on the Spikey Bits Hobbies group on Facebook (Join! Bring Hobby Back!) I ran a poll to determine the “Future” of the Warhammer 40,000 landscape as it stands as a game. This is not the first time however this was done.
Over a year ago, we ran a poll asking people the following:
“IF (THE BIGGEST IF EVER) 40k switched to an AoS (Age of Sigmar) style system, more skirmish based with no points, no force org and downloadable core rules/ datasheets which of the following would you do? (Choose all that apply)”
You can see the results here, but overwhelmingly it seemed people would want to stick with 7th Edition. However, this was well before the General’s handbook and the recent rapid growth of Age of Sigmar’s popularity. SO we decided to ask again, with a slight modification this time:
“IF (THE BIGGEST IF EVER) 40k switched to an AoS (Age of Sigmar) style system, more skirmish based with multiple styles of play (like the General’s Handbook) and downloadable core rules/ datasheets which of the following would you do? (Choose all that apply)”
And to quote last time “This was left story/fluff neutral, which may not be “Fair” but it is too hard to incorporate into the poll. A lot of people quit fantasy not because of the rules of AoS, but the fact that the Old World went the way of Alderaan. So if I entered fluff into this poll, alot of people may think the same thing, but it could also be that a shift in the 40k world could, however unlikely, lead to something cooler and even more liked by the fanbase. Do to this uncertainty, rules were the pure focus of my question. (Especially given the recent developments of the Gathering Storm Campaign- Ed)
As well, this poll is not scientific at all. I had no control over the demographics for one, so this may be a relatively skewed data set (and probably is since it is comprised solely of spikey bitsers. Bitzerkers?). This poll on Dakka or BoLS would likely be VERY different. Futhermore, I have no data on what people ALREADY play and what they would just continue. Would people pick up infinity, or are people already playing it? Would people who don’t play 7th now START 40k again with a change to AoS? These are simply things I couldn’t collect in a FB poll. Maybe a well developed surveymonkey poll would give us this information, but that is beyond my scope for now.”
Results from last time in parenthesis
Total Responses- 714 (394)
Total Respondent- 372 (255)
Avg Responses per Respondent ~ 1.92 (1.55)
- Play 7th Edition- 134 (155)
- Play the new AoS style of 40k- 277 (53)
- Wait for and Play a community developed 8th Edition- 15 (11)
- Play 30k- 124 (66)
- Play 6th Edition- 6 (6)
- Play 3rd/4th/5th Edition- (16) 12
- Play RT/2nd Edition-8 (5)
- Play Killteams- 59 (22)
- Play another Sci-Fi/Fantasy game (X-wing, Armada, Warmahordes, Infinity, Specialist Games, etc)- 40 (34)
- Play Historical Wargames (Black Powder, Bolt Action, FoW, Team Yankee, P&S, etc.)- 25 (10)
- Stop playing games and just collect models- 6 (14)
- Quit the hobby all together- 3 (6)
So some pretty RADICAL shifts there. First and foremost I do not want to call out the change in opinion, but rather that the sample group grew by 50% BUT the number of “quitters” at the bottom were CUT IN HALF. There was a very violent reaction in the gaming community in general when AoS first released, but if it happened to 40k, assuming they don’t nuke the lore, it doesn’t seem like there would be nearly as much negativity and rage quitting.
Next, note the DRAMATIC SWING on the front of 7th to AoS 40k. First of all between the two there were only 20 respondents that selected both, which is 7% of the AoS 40k players and 15% of the 7th ed backers, so in general people seem pretty set on one style or the other. HOWEVER as a percentage of the total respondents, there was a gross decrease of 25% for 7ths ed (61% to 36%) and a gross increase of 54% for AoS 40K (21% to 75%). This is a HUGE swing, and it really speaks a lot about what the General’s Handbook has done for AoS.
Next to note is that there was an overall growth in 30k interest, from 26% of respondents to 33%. This is unsurprising given the release of BoP and BaC. What is even more interesting however is 41 respondents answered both 30k and AoS 40k. This is double what is was for 7th and AoS 40k and is 15% of all the AoS respondents and 33% of the 30k ones. To me, this speaks someone to the strength still of the core 7th ed rules. A chief complaint of the current edition is the rules blot with the factions and codicies, and that is a big selling point on 30k, that the bloat isn’t really there and there is a semblance of balance. That though is also a major selling point of the fantasy AoS, so it should be no surprise there is significant overlap. Its not that everyone has issues with 7th edition itself, but rather what it has become. Now to reinforce that, there are 31 crossovers between 7th and 30k which is 23% and 25% of their respondents respectively. What this also tells me is that there are a lot of die hard, pure 30k players out there, and they are here to stay and will continue to grow, no matter what happens with regular 40k.
A few other minor things to note. One, there is a general per capita decline (13% to 10%) in interest in OTHER fantasy/sci-fi games. Could it be that GW is slowly beginning to reclaim its market share from usurper games? I don’t think X-Wing is going away, but I think the “Great Conversion” has long since past us. Either you play X-wing at this point or you don’t, as evidenced by its category’s inability to significantly change OR gather a large number of respondents. And with what I feel is a recent overall resurgence in the HOBBY aspect of wargaming, you may see more people coming back into the Warhammer fold. Twitch, the Long War, the ITC are all doing great things for this. HOWEVER the biggest shift is likely the greatly increase social media presence GW itself has. This may be having a great impact on hobbyists. The company is showing interest in them again, so they are more willing to reciprocate as consumers. Building on this thought is the 168% increase in interest in Kill Teams! A very hobby-centric format, which is fun and fast to play (much like AoS…. hmmm). As well the 150% increase in historical wargaming. That may not be the realm of GW per se, but it is a true hobbyists stomping ground. You do historicals for the love of hobby above all else.
I am sure there are more conclusions that can be drawn from this, but I feel I hit the biggest points. It is clearly evident that the Sigmarization of 40K would not be perceived nearly as devastating now as it would have been same time last year, and as long as the story was intact and good, I don’t think it would be perceived poorly at all really. Now, I personally hope they don’t go full Sigmar. I like 40k and prefer its mechanics and diversity. But I will admit, the bushes need some trimming.
If you are not one to walk the beaten tactical path, then come check out more articles like this on Sepulchre of Heroes, home of the 9th Legion. You can also find there plenty of other thoughts and discussions on the hobby and Warhammer 40k, particularly Blood Angels. We feature ample hobby content in painting and kitbashing and cover several GW specialist games such as Battlefleet Gothic and Blood Bowl.
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About the Author: Gothmog
